Melbourne Cup 2026 at Flemington
The Lexus Melbourne Cup, a Group 1 over 3200m at Flemington on 03 Nov 2026, is set for 3:00pm on Soft ground with 23 runners, and the race poses a pressure question on the map. Plenty of pressure is expected in the run, so the draw and the run matter as much as the rating in a field this size. The prices below are the best fixed-odds bookmaker prices at 11:29am AEDT and will move before the jump.
Hopewell Rock ($7.00) heads our ratings, with late support in the market. Z.T.Lloyd rides him from barrier 15, and his map sits at the centre of the case. He hit the front with 300m to go and stuck on well two back, and he was six lengths away on the turn in the Ebor before looming up and just missing. The draw is the knock, because he will need luck from out here.
Point Of Law ($8.00) is the main danger. The English import accounted for four rivals at Newmarket, then produced an impressive on-pace win in the Geelong Cup, and he drops in class after racing stronger fields. E.P.Brown has barrier 9, the best draw of the five. The knock is a long drought, which raises the past-peak question.
Trustyourinstinct ($9.00) carries light weight and opened at short odds. J.B.McDonald has barrier 18, the widest of the five, so he faces the same obstacle as Hopewell Rock. He was four lengths away with 300m to go two back and still hit the line hard, and he held ground behind the classy Scandinavia latest.
Shockletz ($12.00) drops in class and closes better than these rivals, with a strong finishing burst, and he sits closer to the pace than most of the field. H.T.Coffey has barrier 17. The knocks are form that has slipped below earlier efforts and the heavy weight he carries.
Juja Kibo ($13.00) is the wet track angle, with strong soft ground form and a record of being tested against quality fields. S.Clipperton has barrier 14. He typically settles further back than these opponents and his form has declined, so the profile fits only if the race falls his way.
The read changes if the early pace collapses, which would favour runners close to the lead such as Shockletz, or if the going shifts. Across all five the same theme repeats: wide barriers and a big field mean luck in running will count.
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