Race 7, Doomben, Mullins Lawyers BM65 Handicap
The Mullins Lawyers BM65 Handicap runs over 1660m at Doomben on 24 June on a Soft track. Race shape figures to be contested throughout: the data points to pressure in the run, which puts Empress Of Japan squarely at the centre of the case. How the pace develops will largely determine where the value sits.
Empress Of Japan ($4.20) is the narrow market leader, and the form trend supports that position. She has been building in the right direction, and on a Soft track with a race that figures to set up honestly, that improvement trajectory matters. The caution worth holding: she tends to finish weaker than her rivals once the sprint is truly on. If the race is run at genuine tempo and the last 400m becomes a war of attrition, that limitation could be tested.
Golden Eyes ($4.45) sits within a length of Empress Of Japan in the market, which tells you this is genuinely line-ball. The class drop is the most useful fact here, she has been competing in stronger company, and stepping back into BM65 grade gives her a legitimate edge on paper. The offset is her tendency to settle further back than these opponents. On a 1660m track with pressure on, she will need luck from off the pace to have her chance in the straight.
Kundabung ($5.25) is the other runner worth a look. She sits closer to the tempo than most in this field, which in a pressured race can be an advantage, particularly if the leaders set an honest enough gallop to flatten the off-pace runners. The thin market around her price, though, suggests the ring has not committed. A wide exchange spread usually means uncertainty, not necessarily value.
The scenario that changes the read is the pace of the race itself. A truly contested tempo suits Kundabung and exposes Golden Eyes. A soft, one-paced affair brings Empress Of Japan's improving form to the fore and limits those coming from behind. Watch the early speed and position accordingly.
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