Race 7, Flemington
The Lexus Melbourne Cup, a Group 1 over 3200m at Flemington on 03 Nov 2026, is run on Soft ground and the race shape turns on pressure. Plenty of speed is expected in the run, and Hopewell Rock's map sits at the centre of the case, so how he handles the pressure will decide much of the finish.
Hopewell Rock ($7.00) is the market's clear reference point. He hit the front with 300m to go and stuck on well two back, and he was six lengths away on the turn in the Ebor before looming up and just missing. The case for him is that he has shown he can finish off a strong pace. The case against is the wide draw, which means he will need luck from out here.
Point Of Law ($8.50) is the principal danger to that read. The English import accounted for four rivals at Newmarket, then produced an impressive on-pace win in the Geelong Cup. Dropping in class from stronger fields makes his profile easy to back, but career form meeting a long drought raises the question of whether he is past peak.
Trustyourinstinct ($8.50) makes the field on weight, carrying light weight that helps him get in well at the weights. He was four lengths away with 300m to go two back and hit the line hard to score, and he held ground behind the classy Scandinavia latest. The wide draw is the same obstacle he faces as Hopewell Rock.
The read changes if the early pace collapses and the race is run to the front, which would favour a runner settled near the lead. A change in the going would also shift the picture. Hopewell Rock and Point Of Law are narrowly preferred on the numbers, but the field is close enough that the wide draws keep the outcome open.
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