Race 8, Flemington, TAB Turnbull Stakes
The TAB Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on 3 October 2026 is a Group 1 over 2000m on a Heavy track. Sir Delius maps to lead, with Aeliana the obvious threat off the back of the speed. On a Heavy surface at this distance, the final furlong becomes the decisive passage, which keeps the pace-setter's profile squarely in the middle of the read rather than at either end.
Sir Delius ($2.70) is the defending winner returning to the same assignment. He found the line well when resuming and carries good second-up form into this. The market holds him narrowly preferred over the field. The caution is that he tends to settle further back than his rivals, which could complicate matters if the speed dries up and the race turns tactical. On a Heavy track, a true pace-setter who ends up mid-pack faces a different challenge to the one the odds imply.
Aeliana ($4.00) is the market's second pick, though the gap between her and Sir Delius is meaningful. She was fifth in this race last year and ran a creditable effort behind a strong rival most recently, posting solid sectionals despite a slow start. The grade-up is a genuine query: today's field is tougher than what she has beaten, and she needs a clean getaway to avoid repeating that back-of-the-field pattern.
Cosmic Crusader ($7.25) enters at a more generous price and arrives in good nick from two wins earlier this prep. He closes better than most in this field, which suits if the pace quickens late on a Heavy surface. The step up in grade is the unknown; Group 1 opposition is a different test to what has primed this preparation.
The race hinges on tempo. A genuine pace off a Heavy 8 track suits a horse that can close, which tilts the late-race scenario toward Aeliana and Cosmic Crusader. A flat, slowly-run affair keeps Sir Delius in command. Watch the track report on race day before forming a final view.
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