Race 7, Kempsey
Race 7 at Kempsey, the AKUBRA KEMPSEY CUP over 1450m on a Heavy track, sets up as a deep Open race with two runners sitting clear of the rest. Jade Trees is narrowly preferred on the card, and Kaihoko is the one pressing him. Heavy going keeps the last furlong in play, so the finishing kick matters as much as the early position.
Jade Trees ($3.70) heads the market on form trending the right way. The caution is that he usually settles further back than this group, which makes a clean run through a heavy track a real question. He needs to find his rhythm early and not get shut out wide.
Kaihoko ($5.00) is the most natural fit for the early running and has been placed to settle closer to the pace than most. The concern is recent form, which has dropped below his earlier efforts. If the pace is honest, he can ask the question; if it is slow, the tempo may not suit him.
King Of Dragons ($6.00) has improving form and is the third name in the read. He tends to settle further back, which puts him in the same bracket of concern as Jade Trees on a heavy surface. He is a genuine danger if the leaders tire late.
The read changes with how the first 800m is run. A fast early tempo favours closers and helps King Of Dragons. A steady pace keeps Kaihoko in the mix and makes the top pair harder to separate. Watch the scratchings and any late change of going before the race.
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