Race 7, Northam, XMAS IN JULY TICKETS THROUGH TRYBOOKING HANDICAP
Northam stages Race 7 over 1600m on a Soft track on 25 June 2026, a BM 70 handicap that shapes as a compressor race rather than a procession. With a bigger field, the runner who handles the squeeze, and avoids trouble finding clear air in the straight, holds an edge. Two runners in the market map to a forward position; that sets up a race where the mid-field runners will need a clean run to go with them.
Shimonoseki ($3.85) sits at the head of the market and the profile holds together here. His positive angle is straightforward: proven on going similar to what Northam is presenting today. The caution is genuine, he steps up in grade and faces tougher opposition than he has dealt with recently. In a bigger field, the question is whether his form translates to this level. He is narrowly preferred by the market, but the gap to the next two is slim.
Autumn Gem ($4.45) maps to sit closer to the speed than most in this field, which is worth something over 1600m on a Soft track. The concern is form: recent runs have fallen below her earlier efforts, which makes it hard to be confident the prep is building in the right direction. She rates as a credible alternative if the pace sets up against Shimonoseki.
Jazz Me Baby ($4.55) shares a similar pace profile, sitting forward, and at almost identical odds to Autumn Gem the market has them line-ball. The same caution applies: recent form is trending the wrong way, and that wobble in the prep is hard to overlook at this grade.
The scenario that reshapes the read: if the pace collapses or the track plays slower than expected, the forward runners gain further. If the field bunches and pace is genuine, Shimonoseki's ability to handle these conditions under pressure becomes the key variable. This is a close three-way read, and each-way thinking is appropriate given the margins between them.
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