Race 1, Wagga
Wagga hosts this 2500m BM 70 heat of the Wagga Stayers Series on Good going, and the field is small enough that the speed map will do most of the work. Mr Fabulous is the clear top pick on the form and the market, but a genuine danger in Behtar lines up if the pace breaks against him.
Mr Fabulous ($2.75) has the strongest finishing burst in the race and closes better than these rivals. Its recent runs have sat below earlier efforts, though, so the price leaves little margin if the stayer's kick is not there on the day.
Behtar ($4.55) is the only credible alternative. The market implies a strong winning chance, but this is a step up in grade against tougher opponents, which is the main question mark against an otherwise sound profile.
Valentine John ($6.75) has been tested against quality fields and is proven at this level. Its form has declined, which keeps it on the fringe of the contest rather than in the thick of the finish.
If the pace is genuine, the stayer's kick decides it and Mr Fabulous holds the advantage. If the early speed fades, Behtar becomes the horse to watch, since the step up in class matters less when the race is run to suit a closer.
Chances are you're about to lose.
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